market cycles

Bitcoin

2026-09-18 08:47:20

James Check says Bitcoin may have already found its cycle bottom near $58K

Bitcoin may have already set its cycle low near $58,000, according to Checkonchain founder and lead analyst James Check, who argues that two separate capitulation phases have already cleared much of the market’s selling pressure. Speaking to Cointelegraph, Check said Bitcoin’s drop toward $60,000 in February marked a "price-pain capitulation," while the stretch around $58,000 in June and July reflected a later "time-pain capitulation" after months of sideways trading wore down holders. His view runs against expectations from some traders who still look to the historical four-year cycle and expect another low around October 2026. Check said that framework has no mechanical basis and can mislead traders if used as a timing tool on its own. Instead, he pointed to cost basis, realized and unrealized losses, holder profitability, and whether seasoned investors are accumulating or distributing. Check said roughly $300 billion in Bitcoin cost basis sat between $58,000 and $70,000, and about 4 million BTC moved from unrealized loss into profit during the rebound. Grayscale research head Zach Pandl offered a similar view, saying he believes the bottom likely came at the end of June near $58,000. Still, onchain signals remain mixed, with HODL Waves and CryptoQuant data pointing to different readings on the strength of the recovery.

490

Blockchain Ca

2026-09-16 00:30:41

Blockchain Capital investor says crypto compressed market cycles, with AI now showing similar patterns

Blockchain Capital investor Jonah Burian said crypto has accelerated the speed of market cycles, giving early-stage companies liquidity through tokens while exposing market behavior in public. In his view, those lessons now offer a useful lens for AI investing. He argued that outsized winners tend to trigger copycat capital formation and FOMO: after Bitcoin reached a trillion-dollar scale, Ethereum and Solana helped convince investors that more large outcomes were possible, which fed the boom in alt-L1 funding. Burian said a similar setup is emerging in AI, where OpenAI and Anthropic are moving toward trillion-dollar scale and newer labs are being valued like lottery tickets. He contrasted the two markets by noting that crypto token prices were formed in public trading venues, while AI valuations are now developing in opaque, semi-liquid secondary markets. Burian also drew a parallel on value capture, saying blockspace eventually became abundant and commoditized, with applications taking most of the value. He suggested AI models could face the same pressure, pushing profits toward applications and hardware instead. He added that periods of frenzy often lead financial capital to overfund infrastructure, and said the history of crypto and alt-L1 should be enough to justify skepticism toward current AI lab bets, unless AGI arrives.

910

Changpeng Zha

2026-08-25 13:00:00

CZ says most people should DCA into major crypto instead of going all-in

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao said he would not tell people to repeat his 2014 decision to sell an apartment and put everything into Bitcoin if that property represents most of their wealth. In a community Q&A at Binance Clubhouse Bali 2026, Zhao said most people are better served by dollar-cost averaging 1%, 5%, or 10% of monthly income into major crypto assets they trust. The discussion also covered his changed views on NFTs, meme coins, and real-world assets, his belief that the four-year cycle still looks intact, and his view that the next major catalyst cannot be called in advance. Zhao also spoke at length about AI, saying blockchain-based payment rails are a better fit for AI agents than credit cards because they are programmable, borderless, and less dependent on human verification steps. He added that Giggle Academy, which he said now serves more than 1 million children, found that fully AI-driven teaching does not work well for kids ages 2 to 6, leading the team to keep humans in charge while using AI to generate content components.

1010

Changpeng Zha

2026-08-25 05:33:52

CZ says most people should skip the all-in trade and DCA into major crypto assets

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao used a Bali Clubhouse 2026 Q&A to draw a clear line between his own early Bitcoin bet and what he thinks most people should do now. Zhao, widely known for selling his apartment in 2014 to buy Bitcoin, said he would not advise anyone to repeat that move if the property represents most of their wealth. Instead, he said most people are better off using dollar-cost averaging and putting 1%, 5%, or 10% of monthly income into large crypto assets they trust. He also said several of his views have changed over time. Zhao admitted he did not expect NFTs to become mainstream, still does not fully understand the logic behind meme coins despite their popularity, and has turned more positive on real-world assets after initially dismissing the sector about a year and a half ago. On market structure, he said the four-year cycle still looks strong, but he cannot identify the next catalyst and noted he did not see DeFi Summer coming six months in advance in 2020. The discussion also covered AI, payments, education, and Indonesia’s Web3 market. Zhao argued crypto-native payment rails are a better fit for AI agents than credit cards, said Giggle Academy found that fully AI-led teaching did not work well for children aged 2 to 6, and said Indonesia still lacks local stablecoins, tokenized domestic assets, and clearer regulation.

1360

crypto bull m

2026-08-24 08:59:08

What to watch from past crypto bull-market mid-cycle signals

Foresight highlighted a framework for reading the current market through the lens of earlier crypto bull-market cycles. The focus is on breaking down mid-cycle launch signals seen in prior runs, then comparing those patterns with today’s market action to judge whether current moves are genuine or misleading. The piece also points readers toward a set of key indicators to monitor and flags potential trading risks that may emerge during this stage of the cycle. At its core, the discussion asks which early lessons from past bull markets still matter in the present setup, and how traders should separate historically meaningful signals from false starts.

980

Bitcoin

2026-08-23 10:13:45

Jiang Zhuoer says a sideways Bitcoin market could trigger FOMO and cap downside

Jiang Zhuoer said on X that if this cycle’s low was around $57,800, Bitcoin’s current pullback is already close to the scale and duration seen in the previous three market cycles. In his view, a large number of investors may currently be sidelined after missing the move. He said that if Bitcoin continues to trade sideways, fear of missing out, or FOMO, could build over time. Once capital starts flowing back into the market, he added, room for another leg down may become limited. Jiang also pointed to late-2021 price action as a possible reference for what comes next. He said the market could see a short-lived "golden pit" style dip, suggesting that any buy-the-dip opportunity during a pullback may only remain open briefly. The comments were published by Odaily in a newsflash citing Jiang’s post and accompanying chart comparing Bitcoin’s historical cycles.

1140

Meme Coins

2026-08-12 13:59:15

Meme Coin Cycle Nears 3 Years, Outlasting NFT Cycle: Adam

A crypto analyst active on social media under the handle Adam (@Adam_Tehc) has shared fresh observations about the comparative length of meme coin and NFT market cycles, as highlighted in a recent Odaily newsflash. In his latest post, Adam argues that the current meme coin cycle has already lasted for nearly three years, clearly exceeding the lifespan of the earlier NFT cycle. To support his claim, he points to weekly on-chain trading volume data. Even when factoring in the period dominated by Blur, the NFT cycle only ran for approximately 21 months, according to Adam. The ongoing meme coin cycle, however, is now approaching three years and is reported to be entering its "fourth phase." Adam further notes that meme coin trading activity has recently seen a notable resurgence, whereas NFT trading volume has remained stuck at low levels for an extended stretch. Given those trends, he believes the comparison between the two cycles is no longer a close call: meme coins have demonstrated both longer duration and stronger market participation than NFTs did.

1530

Bitcoin

2026-08-06 10:02:23

Jiang Zhuoer Sees Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom at $44,016 by Oct. 31

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of bitcoin mining pool B.TOP, forecasts the current bear market bottom at $44,016, with the trough expected around Oct. 31. The call is based on historical data from three previous bull-bear cycles. His model lists declines of 86.9%, 84.1%, 77.6%, and 65.1% for the current cycle. BlockBeats reported the prediction on Aug. 6.

2410